Caroline's Super Awesome, Last-Minute, Oscar Breakdown Extravaganza

There are very few traditions in my family. Most of the traditions I have revolve either around food (making sugar cookies with my mom every year around Christmas) or movies (watching A Muppet Christmas Carol everything Thanksgiving with my parents). I think my favorite tradition is that every year, without fail (except for that year I was at UW), my mom and I watch the Oscars. I'm pretty sure this tradition started in 1995, the year the Forrest Gump won Best Picture. At that point I didn't fully understand what the Oscars meant, but I loved the pageantry and the glamor. I was hooked. This year I decided that, since I have a blog about movies anyway, I'd write a post about who's going to win in some of the categories I care about.

Best Supporting Actress:

I actually don't really care much about this category this year, but I'm going to write about it anyway because I'd feel bad if it was the only acting category I left out. Melissa Leo has won the SAG and the Golden Globe for her role in The Fighter, so it's a pretty safe bet that she'll win the Oscar as well. I have to agree, her performance was incredible, but I'm not sure she'd be my choice for the win. Hailee Steinfeld displayed poise way beyond her years as Mattie Ross in True Grit, and I think she should be rewarded for it. My mom feels like it can be kind of a shame when someone so young beats out veteran actors, but Steinfeld handled that character so beautifully that I truly believe she deserves the prize. Helena Bonham Carter in The King's Speech was also fantastic, but the Academy is never going to award someone who showed up to the Golden Globes in two different colored shoes. I think the biggest tragedy of this category is the exclusion of Mila Kunis from the nominees. Her performance in Black Swan proved to me once and for all that she's not just a pretty face and actually has some legitimate acting chops. I wish the Academy had recognized that instead of giving the fifth nomination to Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom, and film that no one I've talked to has heard of, let alone seen.

Best Supporting Actor:

Remember two years ago when Heath Ledger was nominated for his role as the Joker in The Dark Knight, and everyone just knew that there was no way anyone else was going to win? We all said that the other nominees should just appreciate their nods and accept that there was no way they were going home with the statuette. Well, that's what's happening this year too. Christian Bale might as well be the only nominee in the category. His performance as Dicky Eklund in The Fighter is not only brilliant, it's also one of those total-commitment, body-altering roles that the Academy just loves to reward. Bale completely transformed himself into the crack-addicted, waifish Eklund, completely immersing himself in the character. The Welsh Bale even managed to perform a spot-on Boston accent, something that's challenging even for the most seasoned American actors. While we're here though, I would like to give a nod to Geoffrey Rush, who is nothing but charm and grace as Lionel Logue in The King's Speech. If Bale weren't in this category, the Oscar would be Rush's in a heartbeat.

Best Actress:

This is another one of those runaway categories. Experts are saying that Annette Bening could be the upset with her role as the head of a household run by a same-sex couple in The Kids are All Right, but I have to firmly disagree. Natalie Portman in Black Swan was a revelation. Much like Christian Bale, Portman underwent an incredible physical transformation to make herself look like a ballet dancer, and even performed quite a few of her own ballet scenes. On top of that, she mastered the unstable psyche of Nina Sayres, convincingly flipping the switch between innocent ballet darling and stark raving mad. Like I said, this category is a runaway. Even seasoned Oscar nominees like Nicole Kidman don't stand a chance.

Best Actor:

This category seems like it's gotten a lot of attention from the press, and for good reason; it's filled with outstanding nominees.  I haven't seen Javier Bardem in Biutiful, so I'm going to leave him out of this analysis (sorry, Javier). I have seen all of the other nominees in their roles, so I feel like I have a pretty good understanding of the category. Let's start with Jesse Eisenberg. It's no secret that The Social Network is easily one of my favorite films of the year (it's kind of neck and neck with Black Swan, we'll get to that later), and Eisenberg was a great Mark Zuckerberg. Usually nervous and awkward, Eisenberg tackled Zuckerberg's smug arrogance with finesse, convincing many in the audience that he (Eisenberg) was actually like that, my mother included. In another year Eisenberg might have been a contender for this award, but this year he sadly isn't. Next we have James Franco in 127 Hours. One of the most remarkable things about his role as Aron Ralston is that for most of the films 94 minutes, he's the only one on screen. The film is almost a one man show, and that's impressive. However, I feel like in the end James Franco is just playing James Franco with his arm stuck under a boulder, but it's a great feat nonetheless. His problem is similar to Eisenberg's, though. In a different year he probably could have won, but up against the next two contenders he has no chance.

This brings me to Colin Firth in The King's Speech and Jeff Bridges in True Grit. What's interesting about this is that at last years awards the top two contenders were the same two people. Ultimately, Bridges walked away with his first ever Oscar for his portrayal of Bad Blake in Crazy Heart, an award which many believe should have gone to Firth for his understated performance in A Single Man (this is not a sentiment I agree with, but it's definitely out there). This year they find themselves up against each other once again. Firth has taken home a staggering number of awards for The King's Speech already, and will almost definitely take home the Oscar tonight. That being said, Rooster Cogburn might be the role that Jeff Bridges was born to play, and some believe that Firth will only take home the gold man this year to make up for the one that he was arguably cheated out of last year. If I'm being completely honest, I have to say that I'd give the award to Bridges, who I feel has been greatly under-recognized for this performance, but the Academy loves a period piece, and really loves a character with a handicap, so Firth will probably take home the win.

Best Director: 

This is not a category that I usually care much about, though I did give a cheer last year when Kathryn Bigelow unseated James Cameron and became the first woman to win a Best Directing Oscar. This year I actually care a lot. Most of the experts have pegged Tom Hooper as the inevitable winner for his direction of The King's Speech, a prediction which I desperately hope doesn't pan out. I really enjoyed The King's Speech, but it's a film that I feel relies most heavily on the quality of its actors and less on the ability of its director. My choice for the win is either David Fincher for The Social Network or Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan. To me, The Social Network is a movie that is brilliant not only in execution, but in conception as well. It feels like it was born out of a director's vision, and then it delivers in every respect. Additionally, I love David Fincher and feel like his work is not appreciated enough and would love to see him rewarded for what he does. He doesn't only make films that people like, he makes films that make people think, and there isn't enough of that in Hollywood these days. On the other hand, Black Swan feels like a world and a story that exists beautifully inside Aronofsky's head. That he managed to put it on film so it could be shared with the rest of the world feels like a gift, and it would be just as much of a victory to see him take home an Oscar for what he did with that film.

Best Writing:

Normally I would give these two categories (original and adapted screenplay) a lot of attention because they are probably my two favorite categories. Actors and directors are great, but without a good script a film isn't worth a thing, and I like seeing writers get awarded. This year, however, there's not much to write about. The Social Network will win Adapted Screenplay because it's Aaron Sorkin and he's brilliant, and The King's Speech will win Original Screenplay because, well, it just will. The only possible upset would be for Inception to win Original Screenplay, which I would actually love to see happen, but the Academy seems hellbent on not giving an Oscar to Christopher Nolan, so that probably won't happen. It's too bad, but it's the truth. It's great that they even gave him a nomination, which they steadfastly refused to do when he wrote and directed The Dark Knight

Best Picture:
The big one. The Academy decided last year that there would once again be 10 nominees in this category, a decision that I think is really silly and unnecessary. However, this year I have actually seen 9 of the 10 nominees, so I feel like I have a really good handle on this. I'm not going to talk about all of the nominees because some just don't really need to be talked about, but I'll give a rundown on the ones that I think are really worth mentioning. The one film that I haven't seen is Winter's Bone, which I've heard is great, but by all accounts has no real chance of winning. If the category was narrowed down to five like all of the other categories, the nominees would most likely be The Fighter, Black Swan, True Grit, The Social Network, and The King's Speech. Incidentally, those are also the five films with nominations for Best Director, which is no coincidence. 127 Hours could have sneaked in there, but that's really a film that's driven by a single performance, and if it were to get accolades, they would go to Mr. Franco. When you cut it down to those five, Black Swan can immediately be eliminated because, let's face it, it's just too weird for the Academy. It's a shame, because it's an amazing film, but that's how it is. The Fighter probably won't win, because as far as biopics go, The King's Speech can't really be overtaken. True Grit is excellent, but the Coen brothers are Oscar machines and will definitely have another chance. That leaves The Social Network and The King's Speech, a race that The AV Club predicted months ago and ended up being exactly what it came down to. In my perfect world The Social Network would take it for smug nerds everywhere, but once again, the Academy loves a period piece, and The King's Speech has won all of the guild awards, and the people who choose those are the same people who are in the Academy. I sincerely hope that The Social Network wins, but if and when The King's Speech overtakes it, I'll at least be comfortable with the knowledge that a very good film beat it out.

I apologize for the grammar, punctuation, and spelling carnage that is probably currently present in this post, but I wanted to get it posted before the ceremony happened. After I'm done making Oscar night food and actually watching the ceremony, I promise I'll got back through and do my Bacehlor's degree in English proud.